摘要
利用第六次人口普查及北京市人口年鉴数据,考虑在单独二孩政策调整和外来人口不断流入的影响下,基于Leslie模型,估计北京市2015年-2025未来10年的人口结构,并结合近几年小学生入学人数,对未来十年北京市小学入学人数进行预测.对于当中的敏感参数：生育二胎意愿、外来人口最大容纳量,分高中低三档分别进行处理.结果表明：未来十年中,北京市小学生入学人数将在现有的17万人的基础上逐年增加,最终稳定在25~30万人.
This article predicts the population structure of Beijing in 2015-2025 based on the Leslie Model, with the background that a couple will be allowed to have two children in the future if one of their parents has only one child and the floating population has been increasing in Beijing. To make this prediction, the data of the 6th Census and the Beijing Population Statistic Almanacs is used. Besides, this article predicts the enrolment population of pupils within ten years using the recent data, and deals with those sensitive parameters, such as carrying capacity of floating population and the fertility intention, by classifying them into three levels. The conclusion is that the enrolment population of pupils in Beijing will increase to a stable level （250,000~300,000） from the current level （170,000） within ten years.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2015年第8期206-215,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
985项目资助
