公益性岗位的需求预测及其效应分析——以新疆乌鲁木齐市为例

The Demand Forecast and the Effect of Setting up Public Welfare Post——Urumqi as an Example

文章重在分析乌鲁木齐市10年公益性岗位发展过程中取得的成绩及存在的问题,并基于灰色理论对乌鲁木齐市未来5年的人力资源需求进行预测,同时运用残差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验进行模型检验,保证预测结论的可靠性。预测结果表明:乌鲁木齐市公益性岗位未来5年仍然会呈现需求总量的增长态势,但现有政策的导向可能会减少公益性岗位的增幅。

This paper analyzed the development of setting up public welfare posits over the past ten years in Urumqi and used the Grey theory to predict the demand of human resources in the future 5 years in Urumqi. The Residual Test, Correlation Test and Post-Deviation Test were applied to check the model to ensure the reliability of prediction results. The results showed that Urumqi will witness a total demand growth on public service jobs over the next 5 years, but the current policies may reduce the growth of public welfare posts.