结合昌马水库渗压计观测数据探讨一元线性回归法在坝体渗压分析中的应用

Discussion on the application of unary linear regression method in dam seepage pressure analysis based on Changma Reservoir osmometer observation data

本文采用一元线性回归对昌马水库2002—2012年渗压计观测结果进行了统计分析,建立了水库水位与孔隙水压力之间的线性关系,并采用相关系数对数据进行稳定性检验,同时对存在线性关系的线性模型给予一定的置信度。应用所建模型的预测功能,可对观测值进行预测,得到不同水位时渗压计监测结果的预测区间,为以后的日常观测提供一定的参考范围。

In the paper,unary linear regression method is adopted for statistic analysis of Changma Reservoir osmometer observation results from the year 2002—2012. Linear relationship between the reservoir water level and pore water pressure is established,and correlation coefficient is adopted for stability test on data. Meanwhile,linear model with linear relationship is given with certain confidence. Prediction function of the established model is applied for predicting the observations. Prediction intervals of osmometer monitoring results at different water levels are obtained,thereby providing certain reference scope for subsequent daily observation.