风险预期的农业投入-产出均衡及对收入稳定性的影响——基于Lyaponof稳定性定理

Equilibrium of agricultural input-output under risk expected and impact on income stability:Based on Lyaponof stability theorem

将不同类别农业风险按照时间分为产前、产中和产后风险;并纳入比较静态农业生产利润函数,定性分析农业投入和产出均衡变化;预期产中风险增加的情况下,比较分析理性生产者的最优与均衡投入-产出的变化和差异;构建动态农业收入函数,利用Lyaponof稳定性定理,分析讨论风险对农业收入稳定的作用机制及其影响因素。得到以下结论:预期产中风险增加时,生产曲线向下"跳跃",表示产量骤减;最优投入-产出规模比均衡状态相对减小,且收入稳定性的"紧约束"条件很难实现。

This paper divided different kinds of agricultural risk into pre-production risk,production risk and postproduction risk according to the time sequence,which were introduced into the comparative statics profit function,and qualitatively analyzed agricultural input-output equilibrium changes.Taking into consideration of the increasing production risk,the author compared and analyzed changes and differences in the optimal equilibrium input-output by rational producer,and developed dynamic agricultural income function and also used Lyaponof stability theorem to discuss and analyze risk mechanism and influencing factors in stabilizing agricultural income.The results showed that：1）When the producing risk expectation was increased,production curve ＂jumped＂downward which means yields decrease;2）The optimal input-output scale was smaller than the equilibrium status,and it was difficult to achieve＂tight constraints＂condition of income stability.