基于CA-Markov的土地利用变化及预测研究——以巩义市鲁庄镇为例

The Land Use Change and Prediction Based on CA-Markov Model:A Case of Luzhuang Town, Gongyi City

土地利用变化模拟是当今土地利用变化研究中的前沿和热点,合理的预测能为规划决策提供科学的依据。通过对鲁庄镇1987、2000、2013年3期遥感影像进行判读和解译,在此基础上结合土地利用转移矩阵、动态度、年均变化率分析土地利用时空变化特征。采用CA-Markov模型对2013年土地利用格局进行模拟,模拟结果的面积误差平均为15.3%,总体空间精度达到81.1%,有较高的置信度。再利用该模型对鲁庄镇2026年土地利用格局进行模拟。结果显示:2026年土地利用类型变化较明显,耕地、未利用地持续减少,但减少速率变缓。农村居民点继续缓慢增长,林地有小幅增加。建设用地增加主要是通过占用耕地实现。因此,需要政府在土地利用总体规划指导下,加强对耕地的保护,限制盲目无节制的建设占用耕地,对林地加强生态保育,以促进社会、经济、生态协调发展。

The simulation of land use change is the frontier and hot issue in the study of land use changenowadays, and reasonable prediction is a key means of planning decisions. The author made an interpretationand explanation about the three satellite images of Luzhuang Town in the year of 1987, 2000 and 2013, basedon which the spatial and temporal features of land use change were analyzed by means of the transfer matrix ofland use, dynamic degree and annual change rate. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land usepattern in 2013. The average error of area in the simulation result was 15.3%, and the overall spatial accuracyreached 81.1%, so it could be seen that the confidence was high. The land use pattern of Luzhuang Town in2026 was also simulated by the same model. It was found that the change of land use types were obvious, andboth the cultivated land and unutilized land continued to decline, with a slow reducing speed though; ruralresidential areas continued to grow slowly, and forest land also increased slightly; the increase of constructionland was mainly achieved by occupying cultivated land. Therefore, guided by the general land use planning,the government should strengthen the protection of cultivated land, restrict the blind and unlimited occupationof the cultivated land for construction, and reinforce the ecological conservation of forest land, so as to promotea harmonious development of society, economy and ecology.