“邻避风险链”:邻避危机演化的一个风险解释框架

NIMBY Risk Chain:A Risk Framework for Interpretation of the Evolution of NIMBY Crisis

基于制度主义的风险管控实践严重忽视了弱势群体的风险感知,造成官僚系统与利益公众风险定义的分歧,由此引发一系列邻避抗议争端。论文以"阿苏卫垃圾厂抗议事件(1994—2014)"为蓝本,提出了"实在风险—感知风险—社会稳定风险"的邻避风险链系统,对其概念、特征、决定因素和生成机制进行了初步的理论梳理,建构了"邻避风险链评估指标体系"。这一风险"连续统"有助于弥合制度主义与文化主义的风险分歧,为从源头上对重大工程项目进行风险评估、管控和阻断提供理论前提,为邻避危机演化机理研究提供了新的解释框架。论文采用了验证性的实例分析,未来,还需从数理实证层面对邻避风险链的构成和有效性进行验证。

The risk perceptions of vulnerable groups have been severely neglected by practices of risk management based on institutionalism,and thus a series of NIMBY disputes are triggered. Based on the case of Asuwei conflicts(1994—2014),NIMBY Risk Chain(NRC)which includes three forms of real risk,perceptive risk and social stability risk is put forward,and its conception,characteristics,determinants and the producing mechanism are preliminarily discussed in theory. Finally,the NRC indicator system(NRCIS)is built for evaluating the social stability risk. This risk continuum contributes to reduce the gap between the institutionalism and the culturalism,and offers theoretical preconditions for the risk assessment,management,blocking,as well as a new study framework for explaining the evolution of NIMBY crisis. A method of confirmatory case study is conducted in this paper,and it is expected to test the structure and effectiveness of NRC through empirical analysis based on mathematics.