人口聚集、收入水平与城市环境污染——基于广州的经验数据:1997-2013

Population Gathering, Income Level and Urban Environmental Pollution: 997-203 Empirical Evidence from Guangzhou

城市化进程的持续深入在增加城市数量和规模的同时,也不断提高城市人口聚集程度。基于广州1997-2013年统计数据,沿用主流的人口、资源和环境研究思路与方法,对广州人口聚集、收入水平与城市环境污染进行协整分析、ECM误差修正分析以及Granger因果分析,发现广州人口聚集与城市生活污水排放和生活垃圾存在显著长期和短期关系,但与工业固体废物只在长期关系中显著。收入水平的增加在短期中对生活垃圾和生活污水排放影响较大,而在长期过程中城市化的资源集约利用效果逐渐呈现。本文研究结论对城市化是一种更集约的自然资源利用方式与生活方式的观点提供了量化支撑。

Urbanization increases not only the amount and scale of cities but also the density of population gathering. Based on statistics data from Guangzhou from 1997 to 2013, the author follows the major analyzing framework to examine the interaction among population gathering, income level and urban environmental pollution, employing techniques of co-integrating, Granger causality and ECM model. The study finds a correlation between long-term co-integration and short-term ECM among population gathering, living waste water and living garbage, but only long-term co-integration between population gathering and industrial solid wastes. The conclusion supports the view that urbanization is a more intensive way of utilizing natural resources.