中国农村贫困线分析及贫困规模测算

Poverty Line Analysis and Poverty Scale Estimates in Chinese Rural Areas

贫困线是测量贫困人口、监测贫困范围及其发展趋势的重要依据,也是制定反贫困政策的基础。我国政府在1986年实施农村扶贫开发战略,首次建立了农村贫困线制度。本文分析了我国农村1985-2012年扶贫线,及其收入替代率和消费替代率,并运用世界银行开发的POVCAL软件,以农村人均纯收入的30%作为贫困线测算我国2005-2011年农村贫困人口规模。经过分析,认为我国1985-2007年的扶贫线仅仅是维持生存需求的绝对贫困线,2011年新扶贫标准体现了我国扶贫理念从绝对贫困向相对贫困的转变,并认为把农村人均纯收入的30%作为我国当前的贫困线是可行的选择。

Poverty line is an important basis of measuring poverty and monitoring the extent of poverty and its development trend,also is the foundation for making anti- poverty policy. Chinese government set up rural poverty line system in 1986 for the first time while implementing the poverty alleviation and development strategy in rural areas. This paper analyzes the poverty line from 1985 to 2012,and its income replacement rate and consumption substitution rate applying POVCAL software developed by Word Bank,estimating poverty population scale from 2005 to 2011 regarding Chinese rural per capita net Income 30% as poverty line. We draw conclusions following： the poverty line from 1985 to 2007 is just to maintain the survival need. And the new poverty line in 2011 embodies the concept of Chinese poverty alleviation. It is a viable option to take the rural per capita net income of 30% as the present poverty line.