新疆农机化发展与农民增收效应关系研究——基于VAR模型

Research on the Relationship Between Xinjiang Agricultural Mechanization Development and the Effect of Farmers' Increasing Income——Based on VAR Model

农机化发展是推动新疆农业发展、农民增收、农业结构调整的基础物质保障和战略支撑,农机总动力是反映和评价农机化发展水平的一个重要指标。为此,通过运用1978—2012年新疆统计数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和差方分解方法,研究了农机总动力与农民人均纯收入两者关系。研究表明:在农业生产中,农机化的发展对农民增收效应明显,农民增收也有效地推动农机化发展,并根据两者之间的实证结果得出相应结论。最后,对构建新疆地区农机化发展与农民增收良性促进机制提出政策建议。

Agricultural mechanization development is to promote agricultural development, farmers’ income and agricul-tural structure adjustment in Xinjiang based on material security and strategic support.Agricultural machinery total power is an important index of agricultural mechanization development.Therefore, this paper studies the relationship between the total power of agricultural machinery and the per capita net income of farmers with the unit root test, cointegration test, VAR model, impulse response function and differential decomposition approach by using 1978-2012 statistical data in Xinjiang.Research shows：the mechanization in agricultural production has an obvious effect of increasing farmers’ income .On the contrary, the increase of farmers’ income can effectively promote the agricultural mechanization.Ac-cording to the empirical results, this paper gets corresponding conclusions.Finally, it puts forward policy and suggestions for the construction of Xinjiang agricultural mechanization development and benign promotion mechanism of increasing farmers’ income.