滑坡位移最大Lyapunov指数及其在滑坡预报中的应用

Displacement chaotic parameter Lyapunov exponents and its application to prediction of landslides

根据混沌理论,对滑坡在失稳过程的位移变量所具有的混沌特性以及突变性进行了深入的研究和分析,以新滩滑坡为例,计算滑坡位移失稳过程的最大Lyapunov指数,结果表明增量位移时序最大Lyapunov指数在滑坡失稳过程中出现明显增加的突变规律,且其突变时间与滑坡失稳时间相吻合,说明了滑坡位移最大Lyapunov指数是评估滑坡稳定性的一种有效混沌特性参数。

A detailed research is performed on the dynamic features of the catastrophe and chaotic characteristics in the destabilized process in terms of the basic principle of chaos theory. Taking the Xintan landslide as the practical example,the maximum Lyapunov exponent of displace-ment during the destabilized process of landslide is completed. It is found that the occurrence time of the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the time series of landslide incremental displacement increase agrees well with the destabilized time of the landslide. The above computational results show that the maximum Lyapunov exponent of displacement is an effective nonlinear parameter of chaos for evaluating landslide stability.