2015年中国物价走势分析与判断

The Analysis and Judgment on China's Price Trend in 2015

在当前中国经济下行压力增大的背景下,CPI连续两个月下跌,引发一些机构对中国经济陷入通货紧缩的担忧。目前中国的CPI依旧处于正增长的状态,只是增速有所放缓。从这个角度来看,中国经济并未出现通货紧缩。事实上,防范通缩最好的方式就是保持经济稳定增长。在当前经济转型的过程中,以消费逐渐取代出口和投资来拉动经济增长就显得尤为重要。本文对2015年推动和抑制物价上涨的主要影响因素进行分析,并对2015年物价总体走势进行了预测。

Under the background that the pressure of the current China＇s economy downward is increasing, CPI has declined for two consecutive months, causing the concerns that China＇s economy has entered into deflation. At present, China＇s CPI is still in a state of positive growth, but growth rate is somewhat slowed. From this perspective, China＇s economy has not entered into the state of the deflation. In fact, the best way to guard against deflation is maintaining the economic steady growth. In the process of the current economic transformation, the economic growth drew by the gradual replacement of consumption for exports and investment is particularly important. The paper analyzes the major influencing factors which drive and restrict price rise in 2015, and forecasts the overall price trend in 2015.