农业综合开发投入与农业机械化关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Investment of Agricultural Comprehensive Development and Agricultural Mechanization

农业综合开发投入作为国家支持农业科技创新的一项重要举措,对农业机械化水平有重要影响。基于1988~2011年全国农业综合开发资金投入和农业机械总动力的数据,利用现代计量经济学中的Granger因果检验、ADF检验以及协整检验方法 ,并通过建立线性回归模型,研究结果表明农业综合开发总投入与农业机械化水平之间存在正向拉动关系。其中,财政支农资金投入、自筹资金对农业机械化水平有着显著的正向拉动作用,而银行贷款对农业机械化水平没有显著的影响。因此,应通过继续加大财政支农的力度和资金投入、积极通过有效措施促进农民增加收入、完善优化农业综合开发总投入的结构等方面的政策建议,促进农业机械化水平的稳步提升。

Investment of agricultural comprehensive development, as an important measure of national agricultural innovation, has a significant impact on the level of agricultural mechanization. Based on the data of national agricultural comprehensive development funds and the total power of agricultural machinery from 1988-2011, Granger causality test, ADF test and coin- tegration test method in modem econometrics was used to establish the linear regression model. Results showed that there was positive relationship between the total investment of agricultural comprehensive development and the level of agricultural mechanization. Among them, the investment of finance supporting agriculture and self financing had a positive effect on the level of agricultural mechanization, but the bank loans had no significant effect on the level of agricultural mechanization. It should continue to increase financial support to agriculture and capital investment, actively promote the increase of income of farmers, through effective measures to achieve the optimization of structure of total investment in agricultural comprehensive development. Only through the above policies recommended, it can steadily enhance the level of agricultural mechanization.