我国转轨时期公共投资的经济效应研究

Research on Economic Effect of Public Investment During the Transformation Period in China

在两部门内生经济增长模型下,本文将政府公共投资按照职能分类,并以我国1953-2013年度数据为样本构建向量误差修正模型,分析政府公共投资促进经济增长的动力机制,实证检验公共物质资本投资、人力资本投资和科技资本投资对我国宏观经济的影响。研究结果表明:公共物质资本投资对经济长期增长贡献显著,且短期经济效果明显;公共人力资本投资和科技投资对经济长期总产出也存在显著正影响,但作用效果存在滞后性,对短期经济存在负影响。

In a two - sector endogenous growth model, we classify public capital investment according to functions, build the vector error correction model by use of Chinese annual data from 1953 to 2013, analyze the mechanics of gov- ernment public investment on economic growth, and empirically test the effects of public physical capital investment, public human capital investment, science and technology investment on China＇s macro economy. The empirical tests show that public physical capital investment has a significant effect on long - run and short - run economic growth, public human capital investment and science and technology investment have positive time - lag effect on long - run economic growth, otherwise, having negative effect on economic growth in short term.