基于风险分散角度的房地产企业扩张策略分析

Expansion Strategy Analysis of Real Estate Enterprises Based on Risk Diversification

针对中国房地产开发企业进一步发展的需要,分析对比了境内跨城市扩张、"出海"(进入部分国际城市从事开发业务)和"转商"(引入商业物业持有型投资)3种扩张策略在分散投资风险方面的效果。综合相关性系数和均值—方差模型方法的研究结果显示,由于境内各城市在住房市场波动上的高相关性,单纯的跨城市扩张在风险分散方面的效果有限。引入商业物业持有型投资则可以有效地分散投资风险,此外选择性进入部分国际城市(尤其是香港、新加坡等亚洲城市)也具有一定效果。

In this paper, the analysis and comparison of three strategies, including domestic intercity expansion, entering the overseas residential development markets and the introduction of commercial property holding business, are conducted in terms of risk diversification regarding the Chinese real estate development enterprises proposing further development. The results of coefficient of correlation and mean-variance model both suggest that the improvement of portfolio is limited for the purely intercity sprawl due to the high correlation of housing market fluctuation between each city. The introduction of commercial property holding business can significantly improve the risk diversification. Moreover the participation of some specific international cities＇ housing market especially Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian cities＇ market can also achieve good improvement.