产业结构服务化对西藏新型城镇化的推动——基于VAR模型的分析

The Role of Service-oriented Industrial Structure in Promoting Tibet's New Urbanization——Based on VAR model

城镇化的实质是产业结构的分工和演进。国际经验表明,工业化是推动城镇化的重要动力。然而,因地理位置和资源禀赋的特殊性,西藏工业发展式微,旅游业日新月异,逐渐形成"三二一"型产业结构。西藏难以复制传统以工业转移劳动力的城镇化模式。基于VAR模型的实证分析发现,无论是长期还是短期,西藏第三产业比第二产业更能影响城镇化进程。因此,能够吸纳更多劳动力、促进就业的产业结构服务化是西藏新型城镇化的主要动力。

The essence of urbanization is the division of labor and the evolution of industrial structure. As inter-national experience shows, industrialization is the key power to promote the urbanization. However, because ofits unique geography and natural resource, Tibet＇s manufacturing falls behind other industry sectors while tour-ism develops rapidly. The service sector in Tibet is dominant with agriculture the least among three broad sec-tors. Tibet is difficult to follow the traditional mode of urbanization where industrial is the crucial motivation.The empirical analysis from VAR model finds that in Tibet the service sector affects more on the urbanizationthan industry sectors. In conclusion, service economy is the crucial factor to drive the urbanization in Tibet.