基于Markov-CA的莆田市涵江区土地利用时空演变研究

Study on Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Land Use Based on Markov-CA in Hanjiang District,Putian City

针对莆田市涵江区土地利用时空演变模型进行研究,将基于时间离散、状态离散的马尔可夫(Markov)模型和元胞自动机(CA)模型优点有机结合,建立涵江区土地利用Markov-CA模型。利用2005年、2010年涵江区土地利用影像数据,分析土地利用特征,对2015年、2020年、2025年、2030年土地利用时空演变进行模拟。采用Lee-Sallee形状指数作为Markov-CA模型评价指标,评定模型精度。通过实验结果分析,2012年形状指数,证实基于Markov-CA的土地利用时空演变方法精度较高,模拟结果可作为涵江区土地利用政策制定和规划提供理论参考。

To study the time and space evolution of the land use in Hanjiang of Putian,the Markov-CA model is established in the paper by the combination of discrete time and state Markov model and the Cellular Automata（CA） model. In terms of the image data of the land use of Hanjing in 2005 and 2010,the characteristic analysis of the land use is done for the simulation of spatio-temporal evolution of the land use in the year of 2015,2020,2025 and 2030. By applying the Lee-Sallee shape index as the evaluation index,the accuracy of the Markov-CA model is assessed. It was found out from the experiment that the shape index L = 0. 76 in 2012. The accuracy of the Markov-CA model employed in spatio-temporal evaluation study of the land use is confirmed and the simulation results can be taken as the theoretical reference for the policy making and planning in the land use of Hanjiang.