农村金融规模、农业产值和农民收入相关性分析——基于省域视角并以湖南省为例

Correlation analysis among the rural financial scale,agricultural output value and farmers' income: Taking Hunan Province as an example

基于湖南1985—2012年农村存款、贷款和第一产业总产值、农村居民人均纯收入的时间序列数据,利用VAR模型对农村金融规模与农业产值和农民收入关系进行实证分析。结果表明:农村金融规模与农业产值和农民收入之间存在长期稳定的关系。其中,农村存、贷款与农民收入均存在单方向的因果关系,农村存款、贷款对农民收入有正向影响;农业产值与农村存款存在着单方向的因果关系,农业产值对农村存款有正向影响。

Based on time series data of rural deposits and loans, primary industry output value, per capital net income of rural residents of Hunan Province from 1985 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical test of the relationship among the rural financial scale, agricultural output value and farmers＇ income using VAR model. The results show that rural financial scale, agricultural output value and farmers＇ income keep a long-term stability relationship.Among them, the rural savings and rural loan have a one-way causal relationship with farmers＇ income, the rural savings and rural loan have positive effect on farmers＇ income; the agricultural output value has one-way causal relationship with the rural savings, and the agricultural output value has positive effect on the rural savings.