案事件时空格局演变分析

Temporal and spatial evolution analysis of crime pattern

犯罪问题是长久以来存在并困扰人们的一大难题,随着社会经济增长与城市空间结构变化,犯罪问题日益突出。针对福州市财产犯罪问题,运用Arc GIS、Crime Stat分析了2008、2009及2010年盗窃、抢劫、抢夺及诈骗四类财产犯罪数据,研究了犯罪人口空间重心演变规律、犯罪热点判别与可视化,并从不同时间尺度探讨案事件的时间演变特征。研究结果表明,犯罪人口空间分布存在不均衡性;不同类型财产犯罪在不同时间尺度存在不同的聚集情况;每年春节期间以及每天凌晨5点出现犯罪低谷期。

Crime is a major problem which has troubled human for long time, and it is becoming increasingly prominent with the socio-economic growth and changes in urban spatial structure, especially the property crime. Fuzhou city was selected as study area, and four types of property crime data including theft, robbery, loot and fraud form 2008 to 2010 was analyzed with Arc GIS and Crime Stat. Moreover, the evolution rule of criminal population space barycenter, crime hot spot discriminant and visualization and the evolution of case incidents form different time scales were explored. The experiments results show that, criminal population spatial distribution is not balanced which is more unstable than population structure, different types of property crime in different time scales with different clustering, and the Spring Festival of every year and the 5 a.m. of everyday owes the lowest crime quantity.