2种方法对广东省6个地区吸毒人群规模估计分析

Two approaches to estimate population size of drug users in six prefectural cities of Guangdong Province

目的采用2种基数估计方法对广东省6个地区的吸毒人群规模进行估计,力图找到一种经济、方便、快捷和相对准确的基数估计方法。方法按照地理位置在广东省选取位于东、中、西、北部地区各选取1-2个吸毒者较多地市,对戒毒所内戒毒者进行问卷调查,采用简易乘数法、捕获-再捕获法对各地的吸毒人群规模进行估计,并与各地公安登记在册吸毒人数及上一年戒毒所收治的戒毒人数相比较。结果茂名电白、揭阳揭东、河源市、中山市、云浮罗定和肇庆四会6个地区乘数法4种估计结果（最低值,最高值）分别为：（4 883,9 669）、（598,676）、（3 360,4 206）、（7 908,16 920）、（1 375,5 248）、（657,1 321）人,分别是该地公安机关登记在册数的（0.8,1.5）、（1.5,1.7）、（1.7,2.1）、（0.7,1.4）、（0.3,1.3）、（1.5,3.0）倍;6个地区捕获-再捕获法2种估计结果（最低值,最高值）分别为：（4 918,5 048）、（1 259,1 259）、（4 033,4 735）、（9 921,10 976）、（1 995,2 134）、（1 355,1 355）人,分别是该地公安机关登记在册数的（0.8,0.8）、（3.1,3.1）、（2.0,2.4）、（0.8,0.9）、（0.5,0.5）、（3.1,3.1）倍。结论相对于捕获-再捕获法的估计值与公安登记在册数的倍数,简易乘数法的估计值与公安登记在册数的倍数在地区间差异较为稳定,各地区可在资源缺乏情况下考虑参考相邻地区的相应倍数乘以当地吸毒人群在册登记数或上一年戒毒所戒毒人数,估计当地吸毒人群规模,或直接采取简易乘数法进行估计。

Objective To explore a cost-effective,convenient,simple,and accurate method for estimating the population size of drug users. Methods Six prefectural cities located in eastern,middle,western,and northern parts of Guangdong Province were selected. Simplified multiplier method and capture-recapture method were used to estimate the population size of drug users. Multipliers were obtained using the interview among the drug users in the detoxification centers. Ratios of estimated size of drug users over registered drug users offered by local public security bureaus were calculated in each of cities. Results The estimated lowest and highest population sizes of drug users in the six cities by multiplier method were（ 4 883,9 669）,（ 598,676）,（ 3 360,4 206）,（ 7 908,16 920）,（ 1 375,5 248）,and（ 657,1 321）. The ratios of estimated population sizes to the number of the current registered drug users were（ 0. 8,1. 5）,（ 1. 5,1. 7）,（ 1. 7,2. 1）,（ 0. 7,1. 4）,（ 0. 3,1. 3）,and（ 1. 5,3. 0）,respectively. The corresponding sizes by capture-recapture method were（ 4 918,5 048）,（ 1 259,1 259）,（ 4 033,4 735）,（ 9 921,10 976）,（ 1 995,2 134）,（ 1 355,1 355） and the ratios were（ 0. 8,0. 8）,（ 3. 1,3. 1）,（ 2. 0,2. 4）,（ 0. 8,0. 9）,（ 0. 5,0. 5）,and（ 3. 1,3. 1）. Conclusion Compared with the capture-recapture method,the simplified multiplier method was feasible,rapid,and reliable,and can be used for the areas with limited resources to apply the ratios obtained in the study or used directly.