空间依赖与广东经济增长关系的研究——基于SDM模型的分析

Space dependency and Guangdong economy growth relation research——analysis based on SDM mode

空间依赖是广东市域经济实现长期增长的一个重要条件。本文在综合考虑多维要素对广东经济增长的协同作用基础上,构建了空间计量SDM模型,利用广东市域2005-2012年面板数据进行分析,结果显示:1从空间分布角度看,广东市域经济呈现出明显的"高高"和"低低"集聚趋势,并以"块状"实现整体快速增长或缓慢增长的特征;2从空间依赖角度看,广东市域经济增长之间存在着较强的相关性;3实证分析表明:实物资本存量、劳动力数量、公路里程数以及贸易开放度均对本城市的经济增长产生显著的正向影响,但会对其邻居区域产生负的空间溢出。而城市化水平不仅能够显著的促进本城市的经济增长,同时也会对其邻居区域产生正的空间溢出。

Spatial dependence is an important condi- tion for long-term economic growth in Guangdong, Tak- ing full account of the synergistic effects of multiple factors on economic growth in Guangdong, this paper constructs the Spatial Panel Durbin Model to explore the relationship between spatial dependence and eco- nomic growth from 2005 to 2012 .We find that there ex- ists the accumulating trend of H-H and L-L and overall growth in clumps from the perspective of spatial dis- tribution. Meanwhile, there is a strong correlation between economic growth of cities.0ur empirical analy- sis comes to the following conclusions： Stock of physi- cal capital, quantity of labour force, highway mileage and trade openness have significant influence on re- gional economic growth and negative spatial spillover effects on neighborhood. While, urbanization level makes the greatest contribution to regional and sur- rounding areas＇ economic growth.