中国页岩气补贴政策的系统仿真研究

System Simulation Study of China Shale Gas Subsidy Policies

美国经验表明政府补贴政策在页岩气行业发展的过程中起到了至关重要的作用。本文基于相关研究基础,分析了页岩气产业运营机理,构建了系统动力学模型,回答了政府如何更好补贴页岩气投资的补贴机理和相应配套政策问题。研究结果表明事先补贴优于事后补贴、从价补贴优于从率补贴、技术投资补贴优于规模投资补贴。本文研究对于更好地制定我国页岩气产业政策,加快发展非常规油气产业具有现实意义。

The experience from the United States shows that the subsidies policies of government play an important role in the shale gas industry development. On the basis of the result from some related research, the operation mechanism of the shale industry has been analyzed and the system dynamics model has been established to answer the question from the government about the subsidy mechanism and related policies in the investment of shale gas. It illustrates that beforehand subsidies are better than posterior subsidy and valorem subsidies are better than rated subsidies. Furthermore, the subsidies used for technology investment are better than scale investment. The study of this paper is of actual significance for drawing up the policy of shale gas industry in our country and developing the industry of unconventional oil gas.