基于空间OD模型的中国省际人口迁移机制分析

Mechanism analysis of inter-provincial migration flows in China based on spatial OD models

基于网络自相关理论与建模方法,利用全国第六次人口普查省际人口迁移数据和相关资料,分析了迁移流之间存在的几种网络空间依赖形式,据此构建空间OD模型,并对2005—2010年中国省际人口迁移的空间模式及其动力机制进行初步分析.结果表明,中国省际人口迁移流之间存在显著的空间依赖关系;分别选择网络权重矩阵Wo,Wd和Ww,利用Morans I对网络自相关程度进行测度,结果为0.502 5,0.286 7和0.107 8,且均在1‰水平上显著,说明抵达相同目的地(D)的人口迁移流的迁出地之间存在空间集聚现象;由同一迁出地(O)出发的迁移流的目的地之间也存在空间集聚现象;目的地和迁出地均相邻的人口迁移流之间也存在相互影响与制约.几种不同空间OD模型的拟合度均优于重力模型,其中迁出地的网络自相关效应更为显著,表明迁出地在地域空间上更为集中,抵达同一目的地的人口迁移流之间的相互作用更强.同时考虑3种不同网络自相关效应的空间OD模型更优,拟合度更好,该模型可以更加准确全面地揭示经济、就业、人口和距离等因素对人口迁移的影响作用.

Based on the network autocorrelation theories and modeling methods , this paper analyzes the existence of network autocorrelation structures and spatial mechanisms among Chinese inter‐provincial migration flows from the sixth national census in the context of spatial OD models . Results indicate that there is a significant spatial dependence among inter‐provincial migration flows in China .Moran＇s I is used to investigate the network autocorrelation ,the values of Moran＇s I with the corresponding Wo ,Wd and Ww are 0.502 5 ,0.286 7 and 0.107 8 . It show s that the origins of migration flow s arrived at the same destination（D） ,are spatially agglomerated ,and so are the destinations of migration flows departed from the same origin（O） .In addition ,population migration flows that have the same origins and destinationsare mutually dependent . The goodness‐of‐fit of all the spatial OD models are much better than gravity model ,and there is a significant network autocorrelation between migration flows . In comparison with several different forms of spatial OD model , it is confirmed that the network structural effects of the origins are the most significant , this indicates the origins are more concentrated across the space ;When simultaneously considering three different network structures , the variables＇ influences vary to some degree accordingly . Therefore , taking full account of three different forms of spatial lag will comprehensively reveal the spatial mechanism of migration flows .