和田地区城市化水平综合测度及预测

Comprehensive measurement and forecast of the level of urbanization in Hotan Region

以和田地区为研究区域,分别从人口、社会、经济、土地四个方面,构建城市化综合指标体系,运用2001—2012年的数据,采用变异系数法对城市化水平各指标层予以量化处理,基于灰色数列GM(1,1)对2013—2017年城市化水平进行预测.结果表明,和田地区城市化发展过程中,人口、社会、经济、土地四个子系统都与城市化呈正相关关系,其中经济城市化起主导作用;和田地区城市化水平呈持续上升趋势,根据发展速度可分为两个阶段,2001—2007年缓慢发展阶段,2008—2012年快速发展阶段.根据对城市化水平的预测,可知和田地区城市化未来几年内发展良好,城市化发展提升的空间较大.

Take Hotan Region as the study object , to build a comprehensive index system of urbanization from four aspects population , society , economy and land . Using variation coefficient method quantifies the index layer of urbanization by the data from 2001 to 2002 . To forecast urbanization from 2013 to 2017 based on the grey sequence GM （1 ,1） .Results show that in the urbanized process of the Hotan Region the economic relevance urbanization is the dominant factor , and population , society , economy and land four subsystems were positively correlated with urbanization . According to the urbanized rate in Hotan Region , the urbanization can be divided into two phases , the first slow stage is from 2001 to 2007 , and the second fast stage is from 2008 to 2012 .It can be forecasted that the urbanization will develop well in the next few years , and there is still large space to development .