人民币实际有效汇率变动对产业结构影响路径的实证研究

Empirical Analysis of the Change of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Industrial Structure Influence Path Effect

笔者以不同要素集中度行业结构调整为研究对象,以对外贸易和FDI作为人民币汇率变动调整行业结构的传导路径,建立了FDI、对外贸易和产业结构的联立方程模型,在分析不同地区不同要素集中度行业结构变化指数的基础上,利用2SLS、3SLS和GMM三种估计方法对联立方程进行了模型估计与分析,结论表明:对外贸易和FDI是人民币有效汇率影响资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的两条路径,首先人民币有效汇率对资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的FDI流入产生正向促进作用,但FDI却只对技术密集型行业的结构调整产生影响;人民币有效汇率对资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的对外贸易产生显著影响,而对外贸易对资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业的产业结构产生显著影响。

The research object of this paper is the different elements concentration of industry structure adjustment. The writer sets the foreign trade and the FDI as the conductive path of the change of RMB exchange rate adjusting industrial structure, and establishes the simultaneous equations model, and the model has three variables which are FDI, foreign trade and industrial structure. Based on the analysis on industrial structure variability index of different elements concentration in different regions, and by using three kinds of estimation methods which are 2SLS, 3SLS and GMM, the writer makes the model estimation and analysis on the simultaneous equation. The conclusion shows that the foreign trade and FDI are the two paths of the effective exchange rate of RMB that affecting capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries. The effective exchange rate of RMB produces a promoting positive role of FDI inflow of capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries. However, FDI only influences the structural adjustment of technology intensive industries. The effective exchange rate of RMB has a significant impact on foreign trade of capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries, and the foreign trade also has a significant impact on industrial structure of capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries.