贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

Research on three dimensional risk ranking model of tanks major hazards

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。

In order to achieve classification and supervision of major hazards, based on theory of risk management, a risk qualitative ranking model and a three dimensional quantitative ranking model were established. Accident risk assessment sensitivity factors were identified, risk evaluation indexes were chosen for possibility influencing factors, severity influencing factors, and sensitivity influencing factors. Using the application of AHP, a tank equipment risk ranking assessment index system and a weight system were constructed. According to the risk acceptance criteria, the risks involved with the tanks were divided into 4 levels. Based on ranking model, quick and easy risk ranking of tanks was realized. The conclusion shows that three dimensional risk ranking model of tanks major hazards calculating value at risk of tank by simple mathematical model, the risk classification standard for enterprisewere provided and the classification and supervision of tanks major hazards for government were achieved.