基于因子分析法的公路洪灾模糊概率综合评价模型

Study on highway flood fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation model based on method of factor analysis

为有效开展公路洪灾防灾减灾工作,需构建科学合理的公路洪灾评价模型。根据公路洪灾的致灾因素多样性与模糊性的特点,结合文献资料分析,初选公路洪灾的评价指标,并运用因子分析法遴选出主控因子;采用层次分析法(AHP)确定主控因子的权重系数,并结合模糊概率理论,建立基于因子分析法的公路洪灾模糊概率综合评价模型。选取云南省22条泥石流沟基础数据对评价模型进行检验。检验结果表明:该模型将经典评价方法中的10个评价指标缩减为5个,评价结果与实际情况相吻合。

Building a model for assessing highway floods, their probabilities of occurrence and consequences, is a must for effective prevention and reduction of them. At first, primary evaluation indexes were selected. Secondly, Weight of each primary evaluation index was calculated by AHP. Then, the model was built on the basis of the fuzzy theory. The new model was tested by using the basic data of 22 debris flow gullies in Yunnan province. The results show that using this model,the assessment needs only 5 indexes instead of 10 indexes classic methods need,and that the results of assessment conform with the reality.