地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

Markov chain analysis of metro network in responding to emergency

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。

In order to analyze the risk conduction law and the coupling relationship that exists in metro network operation lines between each other, a stochastic Petri nets based isomorphic Markov chain. By using the model, mutual influences were analyzed for lines in their emergency response modes. Effects of starting lines emergency response modes on the whole system steady state were analyzed. The results show that the model can mathematically reflect conduction law and the coupling relationship between metro operation lines, find out the key to improving the efficiency of whole emergency command system, achieving the purpose of improving the ability of metro to respond to emergencies.