基于投影寻踪法的地下水涌水量预测

Prediction of Gush Amount of Groundwater Based on Projection Pursuit Method

为有效控制和管理地下水,基于投影寻踪法对地下水涌水量进行了预测。考虑了影响地下水涌水量的多个因素,得出了地下水涌水量的投影寻踪预测模型。研究发现,训练投影寻踪模型时,地下水涌水量类别的拟合值与实测值之间吻合得很好,拟合值与实测值的相对误差为-5.279 4%~6.250 112%,相对误差绝对值的平均值为1.777 47%;验证投影寻踪模型时,地下水涌水量类别的预测值与实测值之间吻合得较好,预测值与实测值的相对误差为-3.718 53%~8.923 381%,相对误差绝对值的平均值为4.864 86%。结果表明,本文建立的基于投影寻踪法的地下水涌水量预测模型是可行的。

Based on projection pursuit method, this paper had a prediction analysis on gush amount of groundwater in order to control and manage groundwater effectively. Taking several factors that influence gush amount of groundwater into account, the prediction model of gush amount of groundwater based on projection pursuit method was obtained. It was found that, the relative error of fitting value of gush amount of groundwater was -5.279 4% - 6.250 112% compared with the observed value for 20 groups of independent variables training projection pursuit model, and the average value of absolute value for the relative error was 1.777 47% ; And the relative error prediction value of gush amount of groundwater was -3.718 53% - 8.923 381% compared with the observed value for 3 groups of independent variables validating projection pursuit model, and the average value of absolute value for the relative error was 4.864 86%. The following conclusion can be drawn that, the gush amount of groundwater prediction model based on projection pursuit method is feasible.