证据理论在滑坡危险性评价中的应用研究

Research on Assessment of Landslide Hazard by Evidence Theory

滑坡危险性评估是一个涉及众多复杂的、不确定性因素的复杂工程,其评价方法很多,目前,各种评价方法都很难体现出滑坡各种影响因素之间的关系。本文在确定滑坡监测效果综合评估各指标的基础之上,提出了一种基于证据理论的滑坡危险性评价模型。证据理论可以避免信息不完全、数据缺乏导致模型构造的困难,同时,也将专家经验知识考虑到模型中去。本文通过某滑坡实例应用,达到了较好的评价效果,为滑坡灾害的易发区划分和防治分区提供了依据。该方法能有效实现评价模糊语言的转化,符合人的思维方式,评估结果可以较好地反映目前该滑坡监测效果的真实水平。

Landslide hazard assessment is a complex engineering involving many complex, uncertain factors. At present, there is a variety of landslide risk evaluation methods which are difficult to reflect the relationship between various factors of landslide. Taking comprehensive assessment indicators determining the landslide monitoring effect as basis, this paper presents a landslide risk evaluation model based on evidence theory. The D-S evidence theory can avoid model construction difficulties due to incomplete information and data deficiency, and it also takes into account the experience and knowledge of expert model. By a landslide example, this method achieved better results for disaster prone areas division and provided basis for disaster prevention zoning. The method can effectively realize the transformation of fuzzy language evaluation and meet the people＇s way of thinking. The results of the assessment can be used to reflect the true level of the effect of the landslide monitoring.