利率市场化背景下我国利率调控体系构建研究

The Study of the Interest Rate Regulation System under Interest Rate Liberalization

基于美国、日本、加拿大、印度等国的案例分析表明,利率调控转型宜采取渐进式,并与利率市场化进程协调一致;市场基准利率主要集中于隔夜同业拆借利率和市场回购利率,且大都为实际成交利率;央行关键政策利率品种和期限一般会随着经济金融条件的变化而变化,过多的政策利率不利于货币政策传导。对于我国利率调控体系的实证研究表明:与美国、日本等国家传统的公开市场操作模式相比,利率走廊调控模式更适合我国,央行7天逆回购利率和隔夜市场回购定盘利率分别是我国关键政策利率和市场基准利率的理想选择,走廊宽度在200个基点左右的非对称利率走廊效果较好。最后,本文提出了过渡期和中后期利率走廊调控的具体方案及相关配套措施。

The experiences of United States, Japan, Canada and India show that the interest rate policy transformation should be gradual and be coordinated with the process of interest rates liberalization. The market benchmark interest rates are mainly the overnight interbank interest rate and market repo rate and mostly the actual trading rate. The types and maturities of key policy interest rates for the central bank generally vary with the economic and financial conditions. Too many policy rates are not conducive to the monetary policy transmissions. The empirical analysis on the interest rate policy of China shows that compared with the traditional open market operation system in the United States, Japan and other countries, the interest rate corridor is more suitable for China. The 7 days reverse repo rate and overnight fixing repo rate are respectively the optimal potential candidate for the key policy interest rate and the benchmark interest rate in China, and the optimal interest rate corridor is asymmetric with 200 basis points. Finally, we propose a concrete scheme and relevant measures of the interest rate corridor for the transitional period as well as the later stage.