城市轨道交通客流时空演变建模研究

Modeling Research on Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Passenger Flows of Urban Rail Transit

在阐述轨道交通客流时空演变概念的基础上,从时间和空间两个角度讨论不同层面微观客流演变的定义、意义以及模型构建方法。在时间演变规律上,分析不同主体和不同时间跨度的客流对运营的具体意义,结合实例分析适合不同主体和不同时间跨度的客流拟合模型;在客流空间演变规律上,讨论全线网站点客流Original Destination(OD)演变的建模方法,通过实例验证该方法的可行性,为轨道交通运营商分析客流时空特性提供参考。

The concept of spatial and temporal evolution of passenger flows is defined and the significance and modeling methods of the micro - passenger flows at different levels were discussed from the perspectives of both time and space. From the aspect of the time evolution law, the meaning of the passenger flows of different subjects and different time spans on operation was analyzed; by taking some practical cases, models fitting for different passenger flow spans were discussed. From the aspect of the passenger flow space evolution law, a matrix distr^ution method was proposed to represent the evolution of passenger Original Destination （OD） of the whole rail network, and the feasibility of the method was authenticated through an instance. The paper can provide a reference for passenger rail transport operators to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics.