基于系统GMM的国防支出与政府债务关系研究

Research of the Relationship Between Military Spending and Government Debt:Evidence from System GMM Estimates

欧美发达国家债务危机的频繁发生引起国际社会的广泛关注与思考,对其内在原因的深入探讨迅速成为学术界的研究焦点。文章从国防支出的角度出发,通过构建政府债务的动态面板模型,考察国防支出与政府债务之间的关系。以1991—2013年15个经济合作与发展组织(organization for economic co-operation and development,OECD)国家为样本,利用两步法系统广义矩估计(generalized method of moments,GMM)进行面板估计,从而得到比之前研究更稳健的估计量。结果表明,经济状况对政府债务规模有显著的消极影响,相反国防支出对其则有显著的积极影响,且作用力度是经济发展状况的4倍多。发达国家可通过适度削减国防开支、大力推动经济发展等措施达到控制债务规模、化解债务危机的目的。

Debt crisis occur frequently in the European and American developed countries .This caused widely attention and thinking of the international community for it .In-depth discussions of its internal causes quickly become the research focus of academia .This article takes the perspective of defense spending and researches the relationship between defense spending and government debt by constructing dynamic panel model of government debt .Employing two-step system GMM estimation to the data available from 15 members of OECD over the period 1991—2013 , we got more robust estimators than the previous research .Results show that the economy has significant negative influence on government debt scale , on the contrary defense spending has significant positive influence , and the degree of influence is nearly four times than the econo-my.Developed countries could control the scale of debt and resolve the debt crisis through cutting military spending and promoting economic development .Finally, the author summarizes and analyzes the implications of research conclusions a-bove for the development of our country .Developed countries could control the scale of debt and resolve the debt crisis through cutting military spending and promoting economic development .