基于多元概率比回归模型的上市公司财务危机预警分析

通过建立多元概率比回归模型(Probit)对上市公司的财务危机进行预警分析,研究发现:Probit回归模型所选取的指标体系科学合理且较完全,能够对企业的财务危机及风险进行综合性地衡量,并且该模型在建模样本中的总体分类精度较高,误判率很低,因而在上市公司危机预警过程中具有很大的实用性。通过分析发现,财务安全公司和财务危机公司主要在以下指标上存在显著差异:流动比率、总资产增长率、资产负债率、资产收益率、现金流动负债比率、现金负债比率、主营业务利润率、股东权益比率以及应收账款周转率。这就提醒上市公司的经营者和证券市场的投资者在作出相关决策时时,必须首先关注这几个指标。

Based on the building of Probit regression model, the paper mainly makes a forewarning analysis of the crisis of the public company. According to research, the index system taken by the Probit regression model is scientific, reasonable and integrated, and it can make a comprehensive balance between the crises and risks of the company. The Probit regression model has high precision, low misjudgment rate among sample models, which plays a practical role in the warning process of the public company. The significant differences of the indexes between the company with normal financial state and the company with financial crisis lie in Current Assets, Total Assets Growth Rate, Debt Ratio, Return on Asset, the Ratio of Cash to Current Debts, the Ratio of Cash to Debts, Main Operation Margins, Equity Ratio and Receivable Turnover Ratio, which draw the attention of the operators of the public company and the investors of stock market to these indexes when they make decisions.