天津口岸核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

Risk analysis of nuclear and radiological terrorist attack at Tianjin Port

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对天津口岸核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998-2013年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合天津口岸的实际情况及天津出入境验验检疫局分支机构所辖业务范围进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将天津口岸划分为3类风险区域。通过风险分析,笔者认为天津口岸发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为天津航空口岸和天津港口岸的入出境人员场所,结合分析结果从准备、监测、处置、善后4个层次上提出了天津口岸核反恐工作建议。

The risk of nuclear and radiation classification, factor analysis and risk ranking terrorism in Tianjin Port is analyzed according to the thread of risk . Firstly, based on the terrorist attack at home and abroad from 1996 -2013, 6 categories of terrorist attack are classified from the view of materials involved and locations. Then, according to the actual situation in Tianjin Port and factor analysis of involving in nuclear terror for the control area of Tianjin CIQ, all the area are divided into 3 kinds based on the risk degree. It is considered that the most dangerous location in Tianjin Port for the nuclear terrorism is Tianjin air port and Tianjin sea port where people gather. Finally, suggestions on anti -nuclear terrorism in Tianjin Port are put forward from preparation, monitoring, disposition and afterward disposition.