农户贷款金额影响因素的实证分析——基于福建省农村信用社的调查数据

Empirical Analysis on Factors Affecting Farmer's Loan Amount——Based on the Data of Rural Credit Cooperatives of Fujian Province

通过建立多元线性回归模型,利用福建省农村信用社联合社的农户贷款抽样数据,对影响农户贷款金额的因素进行实证分析发现,贷款种类、贷款人受教育程度对农户贷款金额大小具有显著影响;贷款投向、是否有房产、信用等级对农户保证贷款金额大小具有显著影响;月利率、贷款投向、借款人受教育程度、是否有房产对农户抵押贷款金额大小具有显著影响,且随着农村农业的发展,农户贷款不再仅仅局限于小额贷款。总之,随着农村经济社会的发展,农户贷款的特点也逐渐发生着变化。因此,对农户贷款的分析不能一刀切,要分别对农户保证贷款、抵押贷款、信用贷款进行研究,根据农户贷款种类特点的不同以及贷款金额影响因素的不同,加强分类指导,从而提高农户贷款的针对性和有效性,更好地满足农户贷款需求,防范农户贷款风险,促进农村金融的健康发展,推动农业现代化。

According to the farmer’s loan sampling data of Rural Credit Cooperatives of Fujian Province,the authors employ logistic model to analyze the factors that affect farmers’loan amount. Research shows that the loan type and the educational status of borrowers have a significant effect on farmers’loan amount;loan distribution,real estate,and credit level have a significant effect on loan amount of farmer’s guarantee loans;monthly interest rate,loan distribution,educational status of borrowers,and real estate have a significant effect of loan amount of farmer’s mortgage loan. At the same time,with the rural agriculture development,not all of farmers’loans are small. The authors find that some farmers’loan amount are large. So, while analyzing the farmer loan,the authors carry out study on farmers’guarantee loan,mortgage loan and loan on credit respectively. According to characteristic of different farmer loan type and different affecting factors of loan amount,we should enhance the guidance on classification to improve pertinence and effectiveness of farmers’loan,better meet the farmers’demand of loans and avoid risk of farmer’loan,and promote the healthy development of the rural finance and agriculture modernization.