在乌克兰问题上制裁俄罗斯有无意义及效用?

Is it Meaningful and Effective in Sanctioning Russia on Ukraine Issue?

乌克兰危机爆发以来,西方惩罚俄罗斯的主要手段是制裁。实施制裁一直是西方国家政府对付其反感的政权时喜欢使用的手段。但是历史记录非常清楚地表明,制裁并没有效果。这次西方对俄制裁,对所使用的手段思虑不周,结果也明显不会达到预期的目的。回顾到目前为止的制裁经历,有三个特点:第一,西方国家高估了制裁对克里姆林宫追求目标的决心的短期影响;第二,西方国家同样低估了制裁对俄罗斯经济长期前景的影响;第三,截至目前采取的制裁行动明显属于被动反应的策略之选,而非积极主动的战略之举,导致自身进退维谷。通过制裁俄罗斯来获得乌克兰问题的解决,有雄心但缺乏智慧。西方国家到了重新思考乌克兰问题并认真评估将俄罗斯逼进死角的长期后果的时候了,也亟需考虑修正自身的优先政策方向。

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the main punishment of the West against Russia is sanction. Sanction has always been western governments＇ means against objectionable regimes. Nevertheless, history clearly shows that sanctions are not effective. The approaches of the sanctions are inconsiderate and correspondingly the consequences are obviously ineffective. Looking back into sanctions so far, there are three characteristics. First, the west overestimated the short-term effects of sanctions against the Kremlin＇s determination to pursue its goal. Second, the West also underestimated the effects of sanctions on Russia＇s long-term economic prospects. Third, sanctions, by now, clearly were passive responsive strategies, rather than responsive ones, leading the West into a dilemma. It is ambitious but unwise to solve the Ukraine crisis through sanctions against Russia. Actually, it is high time for the Western countries to reconsider the Ukraine issue and seriously assess the long-term consequences of forcing Russia into a corner. Moreover, the western countries also need to consider adjusting their policy priorities.