乌克兰危机中的政治算术

Political Arithmetic in the Ukraine Crisis

乌克兰危机爆发以来,不断有西方学者撰文称中国是乌克兰危机的最大赢家。笔者对此质疑,希望通过分析乌、俄、美和欧盟在危机中的利益得失,探讨这一有争议的话题。当然中国也在重点分析之列,尽管中国不是危机的参与方。事实上,中国因乌克兰危机遭受了巨大的现实利益损失,危机也确实给中国带来了某些有利态势,但仅仅是一种态势,远未真正转化为实际效益。在危机中,乌克兰损失惨重,欧盟和俄罗斯各有得失,美国利用各方矛盾施展巧实力,但或许也存在战略误算。西方与俄罗斯的对抗客观上促使中俄加速接近,但就此推断中俄将结盟对抗美国,未免有些草率。

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, there emerges numerous Western scholars, deeming that China is the biggest winner from the crisis. The author doubts this and expects to discuss this controversial topic through analyzing gains and losses of Ukraine, Russia, the U.S. and the EU in the crisis. Of course, China is also on the list although it is not a participant. In fact, China suffered huge losses in reality due to the crisis despite some beneficial postures. Nevertheless, they are just postures, far from real benefits. During the crisis, Ukraine suffered a lot, while the EU and Russia had both gains and losses. Meanwhile, the U.S. resorted to smart power, taking advantage of contradictions of all parties, but perhaps there also exists strategic miscalculations. Western confrontation with Russia, objectively, promotes China-Russia relationship. However, it will be too premature to infer that China and Russia will ally against the United States.