我国农村居民旅游消费对消费的动态影响研究

Study on Rural Residents Tourism Consumption Dynamic Effects on Consumption in China

目前我国农村居民旅游消费水平与6.3亿数量的农村人口相比还处于较低的水平,消费潜力没有得到充分释放,未来促消费、扩内需的发展空间还很大。通过建立VAR模型,协整检验、脉冲相应分析和方差分解,对我国农村居民旅游消费对消费的长期和动态影响进行了分析,得出以下主要结论:农村居民旅游消费和消费间存在着长期均衡关系,旅游消费对消费具有很大的促进作用;在未来的一段时期内,农村居民旅游消费对消费虽然有正面影响,但上升趋势不明显,对消费未来的贡献率呈现先升后降的趋势。

At present, the rural residents tourism consumption was still at a relatively low level compared with 6.3 ×l08 rural population, con- sumption potential was not released, there had a great development space to promote consumption and expand domestic demand in the future. Through the establishment of VAR model, cointegration test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzed tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents the long - term and dynamic impact on consumption. The authors drew the following conclusions：There was a long - run equi- librium relationship between the rural residents tourism consumption and consumption, tourism consumption had a great role in the promotion of con- sumption. In the future, rural residents tourism consumption to consumption, although had positive effect, but the trend was not obvious. The rural resi- dents tourism consumption contribution rate to future consumption would decrease.