工业化、城镇化和农业现代化联动发展研究——以安徽省为例

Interactive Development of Industrialization, Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization——A Case Study of Anhui

工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的联动发展是新一轮改革的必然要求。通过对已有文献的梳理,从"三化"联动视角,探索了工业化、城镇化和农业现代化内在作用的机制。以安徽省1991-2012年"三化"数据为统计分析样本,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应曲线对"三化"联动发展的情况进行了实证研究。研究表明:"三化"之间存在长期的、均衡的稳定关系;长期来看,安徽省农业现代化和工业化、城镇化互为因果关系,短期仅存在单向因果关系,经过脉冲响应的进一步验证,发现它们相互之间的影响并不显著,也就是说安徽省"三化"之间虽有因果关系,但三者之间尚未实现联动发展。

Interacive development between any two of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is inevitably required for the new revolution. With analysis of present materials and from the perspective of indus- trialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization mutual development, the internal mechanism of industrial- ization, urbanization and agricultural modernization has been explored. With Co-integration analysis, granger cau- sality test and impulse response curve, mutual development of the sample data of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, the result shows that there is a long-term, balanced and stable relation between any two of them. In the long term, there will be causality between any two of agricultural modernization, industrial＇ ization and urbanization in Anhui province ,while in the short term only on-way causality exists.With further veri- fication from impulse response curve, it is found that their interaction is not so remarkable. In other words, though there is causality between any two of them in Anhui Province, mutual development has not been realized.