中国地方政府债务的现状、成因及防范对策

An Analysis of Chinese Local Government Debt-Current Situation,Causes and Preventive Measures

近几年,中国地方政府债务风险问题引起了各界广泛关注,目前国内关于地方政府债务风险的研究处于起步阶段,在理论和实践经验上存在不足,所以,在技术层面上通过建模和数据分析存在一定的局限性。而且,面对复杂的政治和经济环境,单一的数量评估方法不能够准确地反映和预测未来发展形势。因此,对于地方政府债务风险问题应当更多地从质量评估方法上着手,从制度层面上来研究如何防范地方政府债务风险。通过对地方政府债务风险的形成原因进行分析,指出当前体制及管理制度上存在的不足,从而制定出相关的应对措施来防范风险。

In recent years, the risk of Chinese local government debt attracts extensive attention worldwide. The rele- vant researches are still in early stages, no matter in the theory or practice process. Therefore, it contains limitation of technological analysis on the basis of model and data. The study should start from quality method, for example institution aspect. Through analyzes the cause of local government debt risks, provides a general idea on the shortcomings of current institution and management system. Thereby, this study helps to establish some relevant responses to prevent debt risks.