基于VAR模型的兰州市人口因素对商品住宅需求影响的实证分析

Based on Establishing VAR Models to Analyses the Influence of Lanzhou Population Factor on Commodity Housing Price

本文依据1980-2014年兰州市人口结构和商品住宅交易数据,通过建立人口因素变量与商品住宅需求价格的VAR模型,进行兰州市人口因素对商品住宅影响的实证分析。研究发现：人口出生率的下降在短期内对商品住宅市场的发展与繁荣产生正效应,长期正效应不再显著,城镇人口占比对商品住宅价格的脉冲影响总体呈倒＂U＂形态势,这一趋势将会持续;兰州市的生育结构对房地产经济产生积极影响;城镇人均居住面积对商品住宅价格呈持续显著正向影响,第三产业人口占比对兰州商品住宅价格的影响在短期内波动,长期影响将逐渐增大。

Based on establishing VAR model to analyses population factor affecting the price of Lanzhou commercial housing, the conclusion by Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition indicates residual impact of contribution rate by commercial housing itself decreased rapidly in short term. The falling birth rate caused short-term positive effect on the commercial residential market, in the long term it is no longer significant effect. With the population sex ratio in Lanzhou city decreasing, the price of commercial housing has been a steady increase. The dynamic change of per capital living space decreasing creates enormous demand potentiality of the Commodity Housing Residences Market of Lanzhou. The influence of the employed of the third industry has less activity and driving force.