过度扩张的美国亚太再平衡战略及其前景论析

Excessive Expansion of America's Strategic Re-balancing to Asia and the Pacific and its Implications

"亚太再平衡"是奥巴马政府上台后美国全球战略调整的核心。该战略实施以来虽一直饱受争议,但大体得以推进并取得了显著收益,特别是扩展了美国在亚太地区的战略影响和战略存在,同时对中国崛起构成了一定的战略压力。然而文章认为,伴随着再平衡的不断演进,地区国际政治变迁已使美国在亚太过度扩张,它集中体现为亚太再平衡的内部和外部战略成本,包括盟友体系的弊病和风险、中美战略互疑的不断加深、跨太平洋经济合作构想面临的内外挑战、美国国内政治"迷思"对该战略有效性的伤害以及美国在其他地区进行战略收缩的困难高于预期等,已经逐渐超出其上述战略收益。在这种困境下,美国在亚太地区面临着在战略上"保持介入"和"进行收缩"的两难选择。尽管截至目前,美国国内围绕以上两种选择的争论仍在持续,但对亚太再平衡战略的调整已不可回避。在地区安全局势持续不稳及中美就推进"新型大国关系"构建达成共识的背景下,未来5到10年,陷入过度扩张的亚太再平衡战略更有可能朝着"有限收缩"的方向发展。

The Asia Pacific Rebalancing Strategy has been the core focus of America's global policy adjustment since the Obama Administration came into office.While this strategy has been the subject of great controversy since its implementation,generally speaking it has made progress and clearly generated benefits,especially with respect to the expansion of America's strategic influence and presence in the Asia Pacific region.The strategy has also generated a certain level of strategic pressure vis-a-vis China's rise.This article holds that as the rebalancing strategy continues to progress,shifting political dynamics in the region have resulted in the over-extension of America's regional presence,which has resulted in both domestic and external strategic costs.These costs include:shortcomings and growing risks visd-vis its global alliance system;rising strategic mistrust between the U.S.and China;internal and external challenges around Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation;damage to the effectiveness of the strategy created by 'myths' regarding the re-balancing stemming from American domestic politics;and challenges related to America's strategic reductions in other parts of the world being much greater than expected.Together,these costs have gradually started to outweigh the benefits realized by the strategy.Under such circumstances,America faces a difficult decision:either maintain a costly intervention,or cut back on its strategic rebalancing.Until present,the debate around which of these options to select continues in the United States,yet a change in the direction of America's Asia Pacific rebalancing is increasingly inevitable.Against the backdrop of an unstable regional security framework and the U.S.and China coming to a consensus on the promotion of a 'new model of great state relations,' over the next 5 to 10 years,we are likely to see an evolution from the U.S.overextending its strategic rebalancing to Asia and the Pacific to it making limited reductions to its regional presence.