体系认知、政府权力与中俄能源合作--来自新古典现实主义的视角

Perceptions,State Power and Sino-Russia Energy Cooperation:A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

文章借助新古典现实主义理论,从体系认知和政府权力两个中介变量入手理解俄罗斯对华能源合作。通过梳理1991年至今,尤其是2008年以来中俄合作的历程,认为当俄罗斯对其国际地位满意时,不论政府权力是否充沛,其对华能源合作意愿都不强烈,而当其对国际地位不满且政府权力不足时,即使有着强烈的对华能源合作意愿实际结果也会非常有限,而如果此时政府权力充沛则会大大提升对华油气合作的愿望。

This article borrows from neoclassical realist theory,using IR concepts of perceptions and state power to understand Russia's energy cooperation with China.It provides a map of key milestones in Sino-Russian cooperation from 1991 to present,focusing especially on the period since2008.Based on this map,it argues that when Russia is satisfied with its international position,regardless of the nature of its state power,its desire for energy cooperation with China will remain limited.Alternatively,when it is dissatisfied with its international position and when its state power is weak,even if it has a strong desire for energy cooperation with China,such cooperation will remain limited.However,if Russia's state power is great,its interest in gas and oil cooperation with China will increase exponentially.