中国东部11省市能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系

A Study on the Relationship between Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in the 11 Eastern Provinces of China

从实证分析的角度,将能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三种因素量化,基于面板分析模型,对中国东部地区11省市2003—2012年间的能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系进行分析,结果表明在能源消费、碳排放与经济增长量均呈现增长的态势下,各变量之间存在长期固定的均衡关系;东部地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间均为正相关关系,高能耗、高污染模式依旧存在,低碳经济发展形势严峻;辽宁、北京、天津以及上海这四个省市的经济增长对于能源消耗以及碳排放量的弹性与其他省份相比明显偏高。因此,在能源消费和碳排放量高的双重约束下应当优化能源结构,提高能源效率;加大碳排放控制力度,发展低碳经济,调整产业结构,加快产业结构整合、优化、转型、升级,以此来推动经济的发展。

The development of industrialization and urbanization in China is in the key period, but it faces with conflict about economic and trade growth and resource and environmental constraints.Especially in the eastern region, its development is very fast, but the magnitude of the pollution of the environment is very big.So this arti-cle mainly aims at in 11 provinces in East China, through empirical analysis to study the relationship between ener-gy consumption and carbon emissions and economic growth.Results showed that economy growth of the 11 eastern provinces still relies on energy intensive operating mode, and carbon emissions and economic growth also present a significant positive correlation, and the low carbon economic development model in China is still in the exploratory stage.Finally, under the double constraints of the energy consumption and high carbon emissions, relevant sugges-tions are put forward to promote the economy sustained, stable, green, healthy development.