我国医疗费用增长因素的计量研究

An Empirical Analysis on the Growth Factors of Medical Expenditure in China Metering Research

文章采用计量经济学的协整分析和误差修正模型等原理,定量研究我国医疗费用增长的各种因素。研究结果显示影响我国医疗费用增长的长期和短期因素均为经济增长、人口老龄化和城镇化水平。经济增长对我国医疗费用的长期增长影响显著,对医疗费用短期增长的影响则相对较弱,且经济增长对我国医疗费用增长具有滞后效应。城市化水平对于我国医疗费用增长的正向推动作用已越来越显著。政府应对卫生总费用和医疗消费水平的增长进行适当的宏观调控,并对人口老龄化和城市化水平对我国医疗费用增长的影响加以重视。

This essay attempts to explore the increasing factors of the growth of medical expenses, to provide a basis for establishing ef- fective and equitable health economic policy. The author uses the econometric cointegration analysis and error correction model and oth- er theories, to analyze the factors that influence the growth of medical expense in China. The results of the study show that economic growth, population aging and urbanization level influence the growth of medical expense in China whether in the short term or long term. The economic growth significantly affect the medical cost growth in the long term while the influence in the short time is relatively weak, and the effect of economic growth on the increase of medical expense in China has lagged behind. The level of urbanization plays a increasingly positive role in promoting the growth of medical expense in China. The government need have appropriate macroeconomic regulation and control over the level of total health expenses and medical consumption growth and pay attention to the effects of popula- tion aging and urbanization level.