忻州市旅游收入与GDP增长的相关分析

Correlation Analysis of Xinzhou Tourism Revenue and GDP Growth

文章运用1949-2013统计年鉴中GDP、旅游收入和旅游接待人数数据,运用协整检验、Granger因果分析对忻州市旅游收入与GDP的增长进行相关分析,得出如下结论:从全市范围来看,忻州市LNGDP与LNTR之间的相关系数为0.9555,进一步分析得出忻州市旅游收入不是GDP增长的格兰杰原因,而GDP是旅游收入的格兰杰原因,为政府相关单位提供科学的决策参考。

In this paper, 1949 -2008 ＂Xinzhou City Statistical Yearbook＂ in GDP, tourism revenues and the number of tourist recep- tion data, co integration test, Granger causality analysis of Xinzhou City tourism revenue growth and GDP quantitative analysis, the fol- lowing conclusions ： From the city perspective, Xinzhou City and LNTR LNGDP correlation coefficient of 0.9555 between further analy- sis drawn Granger cause Xinzhou tourism revenues than GDP growth, while GDP is tourism income Granger reason for government a- gencies to provide scientific decision -making.