2008─2013年新疆克拉玛依市乙型肝炎疫情分析及趋势预测

Analysis and forecast of hepatitis B in Karamay City during 2008 to 2013

目的分析新疆克拉玛依市乙型肝炎的流行病学特征,掌握流行动态,为制定有效的防控措施提供依据。方法运用描述流行病学方法,分析2008年1月─2013年12月克拉玛依市乙型肝炎病例资料,采用Spss 18.0软件构建ARIMA复合季节模型预测2014年1─12月的发病率。结果 6年间克拉玛依市共报告乙型肝炎2340例,年均发病率101.49/10万;全市4个区均有病例报告,其区内兵团所属部分农牧团场也有病例报告,不同地区病例分布差异有统计学意义（χ^2=133.599,P〈0.01）,无聚集性疫情发生;发病没有明显的季节波动,以3月发病率最高,为9.91/10万,11月发病率最低,为6.91/10万;高发年龄组为30-49岁,共1298例,占发病总数的55.47%;男性发病高于女性;以工人最多,占发病总数的31.24%;2014年预测全年发病数为285例,平均发病率6.28/10万。结论克拉玛依市乙型肝炎的发病处于下降态势,且有明显的年龄、性别差异,建议公共卫生专业技术人员依据疫情预测及时做好防控工作。

Objective To analyze epidemiologic feature of hepatitis B in Karamay City, grasp the epidemic dynamic, so as to provide evidence for controlling hepatitis B. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the data of hepatitis B during January 2008 to December 2013 and statistical software Spss 18.0 was taken to fit ARIMA model for epidemic prediction in January to December, 2014. Results In Karamay City, a total of 2 340 hepatitis B cases was reported during January 2008 to December 2013, with the average annual incidence rate of 101.49/lakh during 2008 to 2013. Cases were reported in four districts of the city, and also in farms under jurisdiction of the corp. There was statistical difference in the distribution of cases during the six years （χ^2=133.599, P〈0.01）. No outbreaks occurred. There were no seasonal waves in every mouth. The highest average incidence rate of 9.91/lakh were found in March, while the lowest of 6.91/lakh in November. Most of the patients were the people at age of thirty to forty-nine years old, accounting for 55.47% （totally 1 298 cases）. Male had a significantly higher incidence rate compared to female and the first common occupation was the workers, accounting for 31.24% of the incidence rate. The average forecasted incidence was 6.28/lakh in every month during January to December, 2014. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis B tends to be decrease, with significant differences among sexes and ag- es. The result suggests that the public health officer control the epidemic situation in time according to the forecast results.