中国对金砖国家出口贸易增长动态波动研究——基于CMS模型的因素分解及测算

Dynamic Fluctuation of Growth of China's Commodity Exports to BRICS Countries: An Influential Factor Decomposition and Calculation Based on CMS Model

中国与金砖国家贸易关系日趋紧密,中国对其出口贸易额呈波动上升趋势。本文选取2000-2013年贸易数据,运用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型逐年分解中国对金砖国家出口贸易额动态波动的影响因素。CMS模型测算结果显示:结构效应对总效应贡献率的平均值为86.86%,是中国对金砖国家出口贸易额增长的主导因素;竞争力效应对总效应贡献率的平均值为22.14%,中国对金砖国家出口贸易额增长一定程度得益于出口竞争力的提升。针对阻碍中国在金砖国家市场出口贸易增长的症结,本文提出以下建议:推进区域贸易自由化,提高中国出口竞争力;优化出口结构,实现互补多赢。

As a result of an increasingly closer trade relationship, China＇s commodity exports trade to the BRICS countries shows a fluctuating upward trend. This paper adopts the Constant Market Share Model to decompose its influ- ential factors by using 2000-2013 annual trade data. The empirical study results demonstrate as follows： the structural effect contributed on average 86.86 percent to the total effect, which showed that the structural effect was the most crucial positive factor for the growth of China＇s commodity exports trade to the BRICS countries; the competitiveness effect contributed on average 22.14 percent to total effect, which showed that growth of China＇s commodity exports trade to the BRICS countries partly benefited from the improvement of China＇s export competitiveness. Based on the analysis of the empirical conclusions, this paper presents the corresponding policy recommendations, which are to promote the region- al trade liberation to increase China＇s export competitiveness and to optimize the export commodity structure to achieve a win-win situation.