人民币实际汇率波动与中国产业结构调整--一价定律偏离还是相对价格波动

RMB Real Exchange Rate and China's Industrial Structure Adjustment: A Deviation from Law of One Price or Relative Price Fluctuation

本文在巴萨效应理论的基础上对人民币实际汇率进行分解,发现一价定律偏离因素是2012年以前实际汇率波动的主导诱因;而在进入2012年以后,相对价格波动因素对实际汇率波动的影响更为显著。随后,本文采用TVP-VAR模型探究二者与三次产业增加值同比增速间的时变影响机制,结果发现,一价定律偏离与三者间的互动影响机制较为稳定;而相对价格波动对三次产业发展的抑制效应在样本末期明显增强。这主要是因为当前我国可贸易品产能过剩问题凸显,导致可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的价格差异持续扩大,进而在一定程度上阻碍了三次产业发展。因此,政府和货币当局应引起高度重视,调整对外贸易结构,降低可贸易品生产者成本,盘活可贸易品存量,缩减国内外相对价格差异,从而为国民经济的可持续发展和产业结构优化提供合理保证。

This paper decomposes the RMB real exchange rate on the basis of ＂Balassa-Samuelson＂ theorem, finding that the deviation from the law of one price is the leading cause of the real exchange rate fluctuation before 2012 and the influence of the relative price fluctuation on the fluctuation has been more ob- vious since 2012. Later on, this paper uses a TVP-VAR model to study the inter- action mechanism between value growth rate of the three main industries and the two factors. The result shows that the interaction mechanism between the devia- tion from the law of one price and added value growth rate of the three main in- dustries is moderate; but at the end of the sample period, the negative effect of the relative price fluctuation on the added value growth rate of the three main in- dustries has been more obvious. Due to China＇s current tradable goods＇ exces- sive capacity, the price gap between non-tradable goods and tradable goods contin- ues to expand and results in a negative effect on the development of the three main industries. Therefore, the government and monetary authorities should pay more attention to the problem, adjust the structure of foreign trade, reduce the cost of tradable goods, revitalize the stocks, and narrow the gap of domestic and overseas relative prices, so that reasonable assurances can be provided for the sus- tainable development of the national economy and the industrial structure optimization.