中国“半城镇化”困局的成因及破解机制——基于1981至2012年城镇化数据的实证研究

Causes and Settlement Mechanism of Peri-urbanization Predicament in China:Based on the Yearly Data on Urbanization in China from 1981 to 2012

基于我国1981至2012年的时间序列数据,通过构建计量模型对我国"半城镇化"困局的成因及破解机制进行研究。结果表明:1)过度土地城镇化以及人地要素失调引致了我国的半城镇化困局,人地要素失调率的增长将带来半城镇化的加速过程;2)2003年末开始实施的城乡统筹政策约束了我国半城镇化的扩张过程,其对破解我国半城镇化困局具有积极意义;3)我国半城镇化困局呈现为一个累积过程,由于政策约束,半城镇化人口从自身群体脱离需要漫长的过程。

Based on the yearly data in China from 1981 to 2012,this paper makes one study on the causes and settlement mechanism of peri-urbanization predicament in China.The conclusions are as below : Firstly,excessive land urbanization and the imbalance betw een human and land factors lead to the predicament of peri-urbanization,and the process of peri-urbanization in China w ill be accelerated by the grow ing of mismatch rate of population and land factors;Secondly,the 'balancing urban and rural development policy'since the year 2003 has one constraint function on the expansion of the peri-urbanization,and should be considered as one positive significance to break the predicament of periurbanization; Thirdly,the peri-urbanization in China has one cumulative process,and the process from peri-urban population to real urban population still has a pretty long w ay to run w hich is closely relevant to the process of policy reform.Finally,the paper is summarized and the directions of policy reform are discussed.